09.09.2026 · CASA ÁFRICA · ESÁFRICA
Writing in EsÁfrica, Casa África’s blog, Beatriz de León Cobo examines what the migration map of 2026 reveals.
Writing in EsÁfrica, Casa África’s blog, Beatriz de León Cobo examines the migration map of 2026 beyond the decline in arrivals in the Canary Islands. Fewer arrivals along one route do not establish that the drivers of mobility have disappeared, nor do they prove an automatic shift towards another border.
The article distinguishes the Atlantic route from the dynamics of Ceuta. Different geographies, networks, profiles and opportunities call for specific analysis. Arrival statistics are necessary, but mainly describe what has already happened and offer an incomplete picture of developments before people reach a border.
To improve anticipation, the author highlights land corridors across the Sahel and West Africa, changes in facilitation networks, payment systems and departure points. She also examines how mobile phones and social media circulate information and expectations. The analysis calls for arrival figures to be complemented by field knowledge and monitoring of social and territorial change.