Research

Beyond Ceuta: Migration Dynamics, Structural Drivers and Longer-Term Responses across Spain, Europe and Africa

Beyond Ceuta: Migration Dynamics, Structural Drivers and Longer-Term Responses across Spain, Europe and Africa

← Research

POLICY PAPER 7/2026 · 5 NOV 2026

Authors: Diego Caballero-Vélez · Filippo Simonelli · Michela Siciliano · Roméo Gbaguidi

Executive summary

The events in Ceuta raise a question extending beyond the immediate response: how can institutions prepare before migration pressure increases and sustain their capacity once an emergency subsides? This Policy Paper draws on discussions at a webinar organised by the Spanish Institute for Migration Analysis on 14 September 2026. The event brought together researchers, journalists and civil society actors offering African and European perspectives. It was held under the Chatham House Rule, so the ideas are presented without individual attribution.

The analysis is structured around three dimensions: anticipation, coordination and cooperation, and continuity. It examines how to connect warning signals to decisions and resources, distribute responsibilities across national, regional and local authorities, and translate European solidarity into operational support. It also stresses the importance of assessing resources actually deployed, decision timelines, reception conditions and service capacity, both during crises and in periods of lower pressure. Emergency mobilisation must be evaluated alongside the preparedness that preceded it and the support maintained afterwards.

External cooperation is another central concern. The paper examines the dependencies created by partnerships with third countries and calls for arrangements that incorporate African priorities, protect legitimate regional mobility and assess consequences for safety and access to protection. Its objective is to turn lessons from recurring crises into funded, tested and durable institutional arrangements.

Key recommendations

  • Establish a permanent national migration authority with its own budget and clear responsibilities for early warning, coordination and implementation monitoring.
  • Link contingency plans to activation indicators, defined responsibilities, resources, deadlines and joint preparedness exercises.
  • Ensure stable staffing, training and predictable funding to maintain services and expand capacity when needed.
  • Make European solidarity operational and build more balanced partnerships with African countries, assessing their effects across migration routes.