Beatriz de León Cobo, director of the Spanish Institute for Migration Studies (IEAM), director of the consultancy Sic Transit Advisory, and professor at Universidad Francisco de Vitoria—where she coordinates the Sahel-Europe Dialogue Forum—participated this week in an event organized by the Government of the Canary Islands on the geopolitical situation in the Sahel and its impact on migration routes to the archipelago. In this interview with the digital newspaper La Provincia, she delves into some of the factors influencing these human movements.
How does instability in the Sahel affect migration flows to the Canary Islands?
There are three main factors explaining the increase in migration to the islands. First, the governance crisis in the Sahel over the past five years: military governments have prioritized the fight against terrorism and the pacification of the territory, sidelining other basic services and migration management. Second, the economic and security crisis, which has pushed many people to move. Third, structural factors such as the climate crisis. It is important to note that the majority of migrants arriving in the Canary Islands or mainland Spain are economic migrants, especially from Mali.
Canary Islands have requested reinforcement from Frontex. Is this the solution?
Reinforcing Frontex is useful in an emergency situation, but it cannot be considered sufficient. The response must be comprehensive and coordinated, addressing both root causes and transit issues. The EU already maintains a partnership agreement with Mauritania, and Spain has cooperation frameworks with Senegal. However, a broader strategy is needed, combining operational support, international coordination, and development aid in countries of origin, transit, and destination.
Do you think the response of European institutions has been limited?
The response could be more ambitious, but it is important to remember that the EU is made up of 27 member states with diverse priorities: the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, or the new paradigm of international aid following the Trump presidency. Europe is currently going through a period of rearmament and priority redefinition. For this reason, I emphasize that citizen and media pressure in each member state is essential to keep the Sahel on the European political agenda.
The UN and EU have deployed missions in the Sahel, yet the region remains unstable. Why is that?
Rather than calling it a failure, I prefer to say that the results have been limited. A military intervention or a cooperation program does not achieve lasting impact if, when the international donor withdraws, nothing remains consolidated. To be effective, programs must focus on sustainability and local ownership, so that communities and states can continue progressing when Europe turns its attention to other crises.
Does the expansion of jihadism in the Sahel pose a threat to the Canary Islands?
The short answer is no. The main jihadist organizations have publicly stated that they have no interest in attacking Europe following the withdrawal of international military presence, especially the French. Their operations are concentrated in the region and, more recently, in their expansion southward, affecting northern Benin, Ghana, and Togo.
In recent months, migrant arrivals in the Canary Islands have decreased. What is behind this?
Primarily, the pressure exerted by the Mauritanian government, which has intensified its efforts due to increased departures from Senegal and Mali. The Algerian route is extremely dangerous because of the conflict in northern Mali, and criminal networks have sought alternatives. However, it is still too early to know whether this trend will continue over time.